I think the article has merit. However, with regard to the success of the war from an Israeli standpoint, the objectives were achieved because their assessment in Israel was that they were achieved. That's why they stopped after the help of the US which provided capability Israel did not have.
Let's make sure we understand the objectives as approved by the Israeli administration. There were 4, not 2. The objectives as stated by the prime minister that you refer to were paraphrase of the objectives approved by Israel:
1. Significant damage to the nuclear program
2. Significant damage to the missile program
3. Attacking the Shiite axis
4. Creating the conditions for the long term thwarting of the nuclear and missile programs through diplomatic means.
Similarly, the US goals in their very limited scope operation were to neutralize threats to U.S. national interests posed by the Iranian nuclear program and to ensure the collective self-defense of U.S. troops and the ally, Israel. This tracks with long standing policy that we would not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. The strikes were completely consistent with this goal and accelerated the end of the war. There was no regime change goal and no national objective requiring a ground invasion. So it's not that Trump did not have the "stomach" for a ground invasion. It's that there is no national objective that requires it. There never was.
There is no mention of regime change in either the Israeli goals or the US goals. Both the US and Israel recognize they cannot state this as a goal because it's not achievable based on the perspective of both nations that regime change must be from within Iran by their own people. We can hope it will happen and create conditions to encourage it but that is all we can do.
Remember that the war started based on Israeli intel and the assessment of the IAEA that Iran was in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in nearly 20 years. In their mind it was do something to stop the Iranians from assembling a warhead which they believed imminent.
Also the missile stockpile is not the issue. The issue is launchers and launch crews. Israel estimates somewhere between a third and half of the launchers were destroyed. But significant reduction in the size of Iranian barrages is noteworthy. It's possible that the limfac was actually trained and available launch crews. I would submit that the elimination of the air defense in Iran is sufficient in itself to deter further missile launches for quite some time.
Is it over? Yes, based on the Israeli assessment that the objectives were achieved. By definition. Will another effort be required? Possibly but not until there is further Iranian aggression or the emergence of the nuclear threat.
I have almost zero concern about the straits of Hormuz. If they tried their navy would be destroyed. Even China is against this.
Britt, thanks so much for the comments with respect to the current situation concerning Israel and Iran in the middle east. I have to admit, i thought the current cease-fire could be a precursor to the Gog Magog war however, i agree that the linchpin in this case is probably predicated on Iran regime change.
Referenced Links:
"Is the Israeli-Iranian War Over?": https://brittgillette.substack.com/p/is-the-israeli-iranian-war-over
"Trump Ends The 12-Day War - But Did He Just Start The Countdown To Ezekiel 38?": https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=8430
Hi Britt,
I think what you discussed makes perfect sense!
I think the article has merit. However, with regard to the success of the war from an Israeli standpoint, the objectives were achieved because their assessment in Israel was that they were achieved. That's why they stopped after the help of the US which provided capability Israel did not have.
Let's make sure we understand the objectives as approved by the Israeli administration. There were 4, not 2. The objectives as stated by the prime minister that you refer to were paraphrase of the objectives approved by Israel:
1. Significant damage to the nuclear program
2. Significant damage to the missile program
3. Attacking the Shiite axis
4. Creating the conditions for the long term thwarting of the nuclear and missile programs through diplomatic means.
Similarly, the US goals in their very limited scope operation were to neutralize threats to U.S. national interests posed by the Iranian nuclear program and to ensure the collective self-defense of U.S. troops and the ally, Israel. This tracks with long standing policy that we would not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. The strikes were completely consistent with this goal and accelerated the end of the war. There was no regime change goal and no national objective requiring a ground invasion. So it's not that Trump did not have the "stomach" for a ground invasion. It's that there is no national objective that requires it. There never was.
There is no mention of regime change in either the Israeli goals or the US goals. Both the US and Israel recognize they cannot state this as a goal because it's not achievable based on the perspective of both nations that regime change must be from within Iran by their own people. We can hope it will happen and create conditions to encourage it but that is all we can do.
Remember that the war started based on Israeli intel and the assessment of the IAEA that Iran was in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in nearly 20 years. In their mind it was do something to stop the Iranians from assembling a warhead which they believed imminent.
Also the missile stockpile is not the issue. The issue is launchers and launch crews. Israel estimates somewhere between a third and half of the launchers were destroyed. But significant reduction in the size of Iranian barrages is noteworthy. It's possible that the limfac was actually trained and available launch crews. I would submit that the elimination of the air defense in Iran is sufficient in itself to deter further missile launches for quite some time.
Is it over? Yes, based on the Israeli assessment that the objectives were achieved. By definition. Will another effort be required? Possibly but not until there is further Iranian aggression or the emergence of the nuclear threat.
I have almost zero concern about the straits of Hormuz. If they tried their navy would be destroyed. Even China is against this.
I agree with your assessment. Your research and analysis of population size, geography and weaponry are scripturallysound🕊️🕊️🕊️
Britt, thanks so much for the comments with respect to the current situation concerning Israel and Iran in the middle east. I have to admit, i thought the current cease-fire could be a precursor to the Gog Magog war however, i agree that the linchpin in this case is probably predicated on Iran regime change.