Is the Israeli-Iranian War Over?

Until the Iranian Regime Falls, the War Will Continue…

As I write this (late Monday evening), media outlets everywhere are reporting a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Here’s what President Trump posted on Truth Social:

Events are moving so fast, by the time I publish this and you read it, we’ll either have confirmed details of the ceasefire or find out it all fell apart.

UPDATE: As of publication, President Trump has expressed his displeasure with both Israel and Iran for violations of the agreed upon ceasefire.

But assuming the ceasefire holds, is this the end of the war?

No. Far from it.

The war is NOT over…

The war won’t end until the Iranian regime surrenders or falls. The reason is because the existential threat to Israel has not been eliminated.

Before the announcement of the ceasefire, in an article titled "Netanyahu: Israel Very Close to Reaching Goals in Iran, Will Avoid ‘War of Attrition,’" The Times of Israel quoted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as follows (emphasis mine):

“We are setting them back, we are removing the threat,” he said of Iran’s nuclear program.

“We won’t pursue our actions beyond what is needed to achieve [the goals], but we also won’t finish too soon,” Netanyahu said, vowing to avoid entering a war of attrition. “When the objectives are achieved, then the operation is complete and the fighting will stop,” he told Israeli reporters.

“I have no doubt that this is a regime that wants to wipe us out, and that’s why we embarked on this operation to eliminate the two concrete threats to our existence: the nuclear threat and the ballistic missile threat. We are moving step by step towards achieving these goals. We are very, very close to completing them,” he said.

Israel’s stated objectives are:

#1 – Elimination of the nuclear threat

and

#2 – Elimination of the ballistic missile threat

If Israel and the United States are to be believed, Goal #1 was achieved on Saturday. Iran’s nuclear program is no longer a threat – although if the current regime remains in power, what stops them from rebuilding it?

However, Goal #2 has clearly not been achieved. Our eyes tell us Iran’s ballistic missiles have not been neutralized. In fact, just hours ago, one such ballistic missile struck a seven-story apartment complex in Beersheba, killing at least five.

While Israel’s missile defense systems (Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow 2, Arrow 3, etc.) have proven immensely effective over the past several years, it's clear these air defense systems are not 100% effective.

And this poses a major problem…

Iran’s Ballistic Missiles Remain An Existential Threat

Despite Israel's string of early successes in the current conflict, surprising Iran and taking out key Iranian military leaders, military installations, and munitions stockpiles via airstrikes, Iran has managed to launch a barrage of ballistic, and even a few hypersonic, missiles at Israel almost every day since the conflict began.

Current estimates say Iran has launched more than 2,000 missiles and drones at Israel. While Israel intercepted the overwhelming majority of these, many have managed to breach Israel's defenses and cause significant damage in populous areas.

Basic observation tells us if these assaults continue for months or years, much of Israel will be reduced to rubble.

This means the worst case scenario for Israel is a war of attrition. They need to swiftly achieve objective #2.

Because Iran’s ballistic missile capability has not been neutralized, allowing the war with Iran to linger poses an existential threat to the entire nation.

As Doomberg points out in “Fog Lights: Early Thoughts on the War Between Israel and Iran”:

"The majority of the country’s electricity is generated by just five large power plants, most of its natural gas comes from two offshore fields in the Mediterranean, and a majority of its drinking water is produced by five desalination plants."

Imagine if ballistic missiles took out those five Israeli power plants – or even two of the five… Or imagine if missiles took out Israel’s desalination plants… This is a real possibility.

On X, OSINTdefender shared dashcam footage showing the impact of an Iranian ballistic missile near a power station in Ashdod, Southern Israel.

And just yesterday, in an article titled "Iranian Missile Hits Electric Infrastructure in South, Thousands Temporarily Lost Power," The Jerusalem Post reported:

Some 8,000 Israelis across the South temporarily lost power on Monday morning after an Iranian missile hit an Electric Corporation facility in southern Israel.

Energy Minister Eli Cohen stated that due to an impact near a strategic infrastructure facility in the South, there were approximately 8,000 people without electricity.

The power was restored in less than three hours.

While these were relatively minor incidents, Israel doesn’t have a lot of margin for error. Israel is a country of approximately 8,500 square miles and 9.5 million people. Most of those people live in large population centers concentrated in a small percentage of those 8,500 square miles.

In contrast, Iran is a country of approximately 636,000 square miles and 93 million people.

Geographically, Iran is over 70 times the size of Israel with ten times the population.

A long, drawn out war of attrition plays to Iran’s advantage.

Israeli citizens can’t afford to spend substantial portions of each day holed up in bomb shelters. Eventually, society will break down both socially and economically.

Israel can’t allow a ceasefire to permanently take hold without first eliminating the ballistic missile threat from Iran, and this can’t be permanently achieved as long as the current regime remains in power.

Therefore, the end goal for Israel is regime change.

And ending the ballistic missile threat through regime change requires either a ground invasion or the internal collapse of the Iranian regime.

Israel doesn’t have the manpower to launch a ground invasion of Iran, and the United States doesn’t have the political will to put boots on the ground.

Will airstrikes be enough to facilitate regime change? That’s the million dollar question. But don’t doubt for a moment regime change is the true end goal objective for Israel.

---

This work is a full-time endeavor for our family. Without the support of readers, viewers, and listeners like you, the work we do here would not be possible. If you receive value from this content, please consider becoming a paid subscriber.

As a paid subscriber, you’ll get weekly paid-subscriber videos and/or articles, a monthly live Q&A via Zoom, commenting privileges on every post, access to the complete archives, and more. Most of all, you get to support this work which spreads the Good News of Jesus Christ to tens of thousands of people in over 100 countries.

---

Iran Will Strike Back

You also shouldn’t doubt for a moment that Iran knows this is the objective. They also know the Trump administration doesn’t have the stomach to launch a ground invasion. Despite the fog of war and the conflicting messages communicated in the media from one day to the next, both sides understand what’s at stake.

Iran understands a long, drawn out war of attrition plays to their advantage. A ceasefire of any length simply buys them time to rebuild their defenses and reload their ballistic missile arsenal.

Israel knows the existential threat posed by a prolonged Iranian missile barrage. It’s likely they’ll also take advantage of any lasting ceasefire to identify new targets, make adjustments, and prepare plans to finish off Iran’s ballistic missile capability while actively working to topple the Iranian regime.

It’s a war of survival for both sides, and the Iranian regime understands they’re in the crosshairs. It’s likely we’ll see any ceasefire broken by a pre-emptive attack - one by either Israeli or Iran - because both have an incentive to continue the conflict.

Israel needs to eliminate Iran’s ballistic missile capability, and Iran sees an opportunity to draw Israel into a war of attrition.

Despite the widespread belief Iran has been defeated, they still have options. Iran is weakened, but not powerless.

Faced with elimination, Iran’s regime is like a cornered animal. My best guess is the current ceasefire is a bid by the United States to give Iran an “out.” It’s an effort to keep Iran from exercising the most extreme of options at their disposal – options they will almost certainly act on if they feel they have no other choice.

These options include:

• Firing ballistic or hypersonic missiles at critical oil infrastructure in the Middle East.

• Firing hypersonic missiles at U.S. naval assets.

• Effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, modeling Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

It remains to be seen if Iran will take any of these actions, but it’s a mistake to underestimate their capabilities. The threat from Iran will not end until a new regime comes into power.

A “Tranquil” Peace Is Coming…

Ultimately, I believe that’s what will happen. The current conflict will end with regime change in Iran. What happens between now and that moment remains to be seen. But right now, Iran is in a weakened state.

A lasting ceasefire leaving the current Iranian regime in power will only allow them to rebuild and continue to plot against Israel. Israel knows they have a narrow window to remove the current regime and create peace in the region.

As The Times of Israel reports, Netanyahu foresees once unimaginable prospects for peace on the horizon:

Looking beyond Gaza, Netanyahu said he believed the operation in Iran would also lead to an expansion of the Abraham Accords, a series of normalization deals between Israel and Arab countries that were brokered during Trump’s previous term.

“Extraordinary opportunities are being opened up here,” he said, and reiterated that Israel’s show of strength “is opening up opportunities that we can’t even imagine.”

“I can imagine a massive expansion of the peace agreements,” he continued. “I can see collaborations that might seem fantastical right now, but maybe you understand they’re not fantastical.”

“We will see a bright future of security, of prosperity, of hope, and also of peace.”

While it seems absurd to imagine the current nation state of Israel existing in a region no longer committed to its destruction, we’re only a few steps away from such a reality. We have a high probability of witnessing the following events in quick succession:

• Regime change in Iran

• The rise of a new Iranian government no longer belligerent toward Israel

• An immediate end of Iranian terror funding throughout the region and the world

• A complete collapse of terror organizations such as Hezbollah and Hamas

• Arab and Muslim nations in the region normalizing relations with Israel

• Israel involved in peaceful trade and commerce with its neighbors

This can take place, but it won’t take place as the result of a ceasefire. Lasting peace after a time of war comes as a result of complete and overwhelming victory. The Bible tells us Israel will not be defeated. God has planted them in the land, never to be uprooted again:

“I will firmly plant them there in their own land. They will never again be uprooted from the land I have given them,” says the LORD your God.” Amos 9:15 (NLT)

The Bible also tells us, we’ll see a Middle East similar to the one just described, which means the current Iranian regime must be defeated. In such a world, the constant existential threats against Israel – persistent threats since 1948 – will seemingly disappear.

Of course, the key word here is “seemingly.”

Again, Israel hasn’t experienced such a state of peace since its modern foundation in May 1948. But such a peace will arrive.

Ezekiel 38:11 describes it. It tells us Israel will be "a land of unwalled villages" - a "tranquil" people, quiet and undisturbed:

"You will say, ‘Israel is an unprotected land filled with unwalled villages! I will march against her and destroy these people who live in such confidence!" Ezekiel 38:11 (NLT)

The stage is being set for the Ezekiel 38-39 Gog of Magog invasion to take place in the near future. It appears likely the current conflict will end with regime change in Iran, and a seeming state of peace in the Middle East.

The Bible says the Gog of Magog invasion will occur “after Israel’s people have been gathered from among many nations” (Ezekiel 38:8). God says it will happen “when I bring my people home from among the enemy nations” (Ezekiel 39:27).

These are clear references to the modern day nation state of Israel and the times in which we live, and the Old Testament prophets directly linked the restoration of Israel and the regathering of the Jewish people with the imminent coming of the Messiah.

Everything we’re seeing points to the nearness of the Second Coming of Jesus Christ. The signs are all around us. Jesus is coming!

If you like this article, click the “Share” button above to share it with your loved ones and spread the Good News of Jesus! Also, please click the ❤️ button or re-stack buttons below so more people can discover this information on Substack 🙏