4 Possible Endings to the War With Iran

And Almost All of Them Result in a U.S. Failure…

On February 28^th, the United States and Israel began an overwhelming series of airstrikes on Iran with an openly stated objective of regime change.

In fact, President Trump said the Iranian people should “take over” Iran, saying “It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.”

That same day, I put out a video warning of the two most effective actions Iran could take:

1) Closure of the Strait of Hormuz

2) Attacks on critical Persian Gulf oil and gas facilities

We’ve seen Iran pursue both.

In the more than three weeks since the conflict started, the quick regime change the Trump administration called for hasn’t happened. It could still happen, but the best possible outcome is likely now off the table.

With production shut-ins of millions of barrels per day and the Strait of Hormuz still closed, the most desirable outcome – Iranian regime change with no impact on the global economy – is now impossible.

So what’s the likely outcome? How will this end?

The prevailing view in the mainstream corporate media seems to be one in which the war comes to an end (either through ceasefire or regime change) in the next two weeks with minimal disruption to the global economy.

As you’ll soon see, this is a highly unlikely outcome. Why do I say that?

Because simple observation reveals a truth far too many people fail to recognize.

The Fact Everyone Ignores

Here in the United States (where I live), almost everyone holds to the belief that the United States has the world’s most dominant military. And, for the most part, this belief is true.

However, having a dominant military and an invincible military are not one and the same.

In November 2023, Houthi rebels in Yemen started to attack ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Launching missiles and drones at ships associated with Israel and its Western allies, the Houthis managed to shut down nearly all commercial shipping traffic in the Red Sea.

In response, in December of the same year, the United States announced Operation Prosperity Guardian – a coalition of twenty nations led by the United States. Their goal? Neutralize the Houthi threat and make the Red Sea and Suez Canal freely navigable for international trade.

They launched over 930 airstrikes against the Houthis.

Joe Biden bombed them.

Then, Donald Trump came into office, and he bombed them.

Both claimed victory over the Houthis. Yet, here we are almost two and a half years later, and Red Sea shipping traffic is down over 60% from where it was in 2022.

The Suez Canal/Red Sea corridor was once one of the world’s most vital waterways. Prior to the Houthi attacks, approximately 12% of global trade traversed through the Suez Canal.

Likewise, the Strait of Hormuz/Persian Gulf corridor was once one of the world’s most vital waterways. Prior to Iranian attacks, approximately 20% of all the oil and gas produced in the world traveled through the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis.

Since Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on March 1^st and started to attack ships, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is down 95% – while about one-third of the ships still traveling through the Strait are Iranian ships.

Thousands of airstrikes have been launched against Iran since February 28^th.

Israel has bombed them.

The United States has bombed them.

On Truth Social, President Trump claimed the United States “destroyed 100% of Iran’s military capability”:

Yet, here we are more than three weeks into the war, and Iranian missiles and drones continue to strike critical facilities throughout the Middle East as well as ships in the Persian Gulf.

If the U.S. could not reopen the Red Sea, what makes people think they can reopen the Strait of Hormuz?

This is the big question in this conflict, and no one yet has given me a satisfactory answer.

The Houthis in Yemen had only a small fraction of the resources available to a nation state the size of Iran, and yet, the U.S. military and its allies failed to dislodge them after more than two years of attacks.

How then will the U.S. and its allies rid the world of Iranian attacks on shipping and reopen the Strait of Hormuz?

This Is Catastrophic

What’s already happening in the more than three weeks of conflict is nothing less than catastrophic.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens today, critical facilities have been damaged.

Some won’t reopen for three to five years.

As of March 23^rd, the International Energy Agency reports that at least 40 energy assets across nine countries have been severely damaged in the conflict.

Here’s a short list to give you an idea of what’s actually taken place:

• Ras Laffan Industrial City (Qatar): Iran struck Ras Laffan on March 18^th and 19^th. Qatar’s flagship liquefied natural gas (LNG) complex suffered extensive damage, with approximately 17% of production capacity knocked offline. According to ABC News, “the multibillion-dollar LNG facility is not only the heart of Qatar’s export industry but also vital to process the natural gas extracted from across the Middle East by Qatar’s neighbors.” Ras Laffan supplies approximately 20% of the global LNG supply, making it critical for energy security in Europe and Asia.

• Mina al-Ahmadi Refinery (Kuwait): Iran targeted this facility multiple times, with strikes on March 19^th resulting in fires. This is a major, high-capacity oil processing facility with a capacity of roughly 730,000 bpd.

• Mina Abdullah Refinery (Kuwait): This was struck by Iranian drones on March 19^th, causing fires at the site. The refinery has a capacity of approximately 490,000 bpd.

• SAMREF Refinery (Saudi Arabia): Hit by an Iranian drone on March 19^th. This facility on the Red Sea was being used as an alternative export route to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz. This is one of the world’s largest single-train refineries, processing approximately 402,000 bpd.

• Ras Tanura Refinery (Saudi Arabia): Satellite imagery from March 2^nd showed smoke rising from the facility following a drone attack. This is Saudi Arabia’s largest and oldest oil refinery, serving as a critical cornerstone of the kingdom’s energy infrastructure and global oil exports with processing capacity of 550,000 bpd.

• Fujairah Oil Terminal (United Arab Emirates): On March 4^th, falling debris from an intercepted Iranian drone triggered a fire, and on March 16^th, a drone strike forced a temporary suspension of oil-loading operations. This is a major independent third-party oil storage facility and a critical component of the Port of Fujairah, which serves as one of the world’s largest bunkering and fuel storage hubs. The port handles volumes equivalent to roughly 1.7% of daily world demand.

• Habshan Gas Facility (United Arab Emirates): The facility was shut down following missile attacks on March 19^th. While some missiles were intercepted, falling debris caused damage and forced a closure. It’s one of the world’s largest gas processing facilities, providing approximately 60% of the UAE’s domestic gas needs – fueling power generation, water desalination, and heavy industries like steel and aluminum.

• Bab Oil Field (United Arab Emirates): Impacted by falling debris from intercepted missiles on March 18^th and 19^th. The falling debris caused “incidents” which caused a shutdown of operations until yesterday. It’s the largest onshore oil field in Abu Dhabi, producing 485,000 bpd.

• Sitra Island Refinery (Bahrain): Iranian drone swarms targeted the refinery on March 18^th and 19^th. While defenses intercepted several drones, Bahrain reported a “direct hit” on a crude distillation unit, causing a massive fire. Following the strike, Bapco Energies announced a complete “precautionary shutdown” of the refinery. This has resulted in a loss of approximately 260,000 bpd of refined product capacity. As the nation’s only refinery, Sitra provides 100% of Bahrain’s domestic fuel.

• South Pars Gas Field (Iran): On March 18^th, Israel conducted precision airstrikes on gas processing infrastructure in South Pars. The gas field is considered a lifeline to Iran’s economy, supplying 70% of the country’s gas consumption. The attack damaged key facilities, taking nearly 12% of Iran’s total gas production offline and halting output at two refineries with a combined capacity of 100 million cubic meters per day. The attack halted gas flows to Turkey accounting for 14% of Turkey’s daily supply.

• Shahid Tondgouyan Refinery (Iran): On March 7^th and 8^th, Israel targeted the facility’s fuel tanks and processing units. The refinery is one of Iran’s most critical energy facilities processing approximately 250,000 bpd of crude oil.

Many of these facilities will take months, if not years, to repair. And the impact on the global economy and day-to-day life for everyone in the world will be significant.

Here’s just one of the impacts we’re seeing 👇

Helium is indispensable when it comes to its use in MRI machines, semiconductor manufacturing, fiber optic cables, and the automotive, aerospace, and military/defense industries.

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And as noted two weeks ago, continued escalation could make matters even worse.

What’s needed to avoid the worst case scenario – which could involve a global depression, a global financial crisis, supply chain shortages, and/or food shortages – is reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and return to normal levels of oil and gas production in the Middle East.

The million-dollar question is: How does that happen?

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How Does the Strait of Hormuz Reopen?

Right now, I can only see four possible resolutions which lead to a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a return to “business as usual” in the global energy markets:

1) The Iranian Regime Falls

The ideal outcome for the United States is for Iranian citizens to rise up against the regime, launch a revolution, and establish a new government aligned with U.S. interests in the region. This could happen. But if it does, it will be a matter of luck rather than part of a grand strategic plan.

However, just as likely, is for the Iranian regime to fall, and a new government comes into power aligned with Chinese and/or Russian interests in the region. Another possible outcome is for the Iranian regime to fall, and the country fails to establish a new unified government. As a result, the nation descends into a multitude of warring factions.

If this happens, but attacks on the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East oil and gas infrastructure stop, this could be a net positive. However, if it happens, but rebel factions continue to harass Persian Gulf shipping (similar to the Houthis in the Red Sea), then this will be a negative outcome.

Ultimate Outcome: Uncertain. If the regime falls, the U.S. and its allies have no way to guarantee the new government is an ally. It could be. It could also be under Chinese and/or Russian influence or lead to the country breaking up into warring factions.

2) Iran Agrees to a Ceasefire

As I write this, all the mainstream news organizations are optimistic about the prospects of a ceasefire as President Trump has claimed he’s making progress in talks with Iran. I find it difficult to imagine Iran will agree to a ceasefire, given the leverage it currently exercises over the United States and its allies.

However, if we assume some sort of ceasefire is brokered, it will likely be on terms favorable to Iran. In addition, leaving the current Iranian regime in power will mean the Strait of Hormuz will remain under constant threat of disruption, and U.S. allies in the Middle East will remain under the daily threat of attack.

Ultimate Outcome: U.S. Failure. If the U.S. brokers a ceasefire with the current Iranian regime, it does nothing to guarantee against a future closure of the Strait of Hormuz and/or future attacks on the oil and gas infrastructure of the Middle East.

3) The U.S. Invades Iran

One way the United States can guarantee against future attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is to physically seize the territory from which the attacks are carried out. Doing so will require a full-scale invasion of Iran with a minimum of several hundred thousand ground troops. Assuming the United States has the political will, the personnel, and the necessary munitions and equipment to launch such an invasion, mobilization alone will take weeks, if not months, to achieve.

In the interim, a continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz will cripple the global economy and spark a global financial crisis likely to leave the United States and its allies in a weakened state from which it will likely prove difficult, if not impossible, to wage a sustained war.

Ultimate Outcome: U.S. Failure. Regardless of whether or not a ground invasion of Iran results in Iranian regime change, the length of time it will take means a continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz past the time in which it will have already triggered a global depression and global financial crisis.

4) The U.S. Claims Victory and Leaves

One way the current conflict could end is with the United States claiming victory and unilaterally disengaging with Iran. If Iran continues to strike U.S. targets, this would likely have to involve a complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region.

Abandoned by the U.S., Middle East oil producing nations such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq would likely turn to Russia and/or China for military protection. The U.S. dollar would lose its reserve currency status, and the U.S. would effectively cede the Strait of Hormuz and the entire Middle East to Iran and its BRICS allies.

In such as a scenario, the U.S. would cement the loss of its post-World War II global financial and military dominance.

Ultimate Outcome: U.S. Failure. In this instance, the U.S. effectively cedes control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran, loses its allies in the Middle East, loses the world’s reserve currency, and sees its financial and military influence decline significantly.

Almost Every Outcome Ends in U.S. Failure

As you can see, almost every possible outcome results in a U.S. failure. The only scenario that does not is replacement of the current Iranian regime with a new pro-U.S. government.

Every other scenario results in the end of the post-World War II U.S. dominated global financial and military order.

This is why, more than two weeks ago, I posed the question “Will the United States Survive the Current War with Iran?“

It’s not an assertion Iran could conquer and occupy the continental United States.

It can’t.

But can Iran strategically defeat the United States? Can it bring an end to the post-World War II U.S. dominance of the global financial and military order?

Yes, it can.

In that sense, the U.S. may not survive this war.

In my opinion, I believe this is what will happen. I believe the U.S. and Israel will apply enough pressure to spark regime change in Iran, and the new government in Iran will not disrupt oil and gas exports in the region.

However, it’s unlikely this will happen in the amount of time necessary to avoid a global depression and financial crisis, crippling the United States and its allies.

This Should Not Surprise Us

Based on what the Bible says, this should come as no surprise.

I take no pleasure in writing this… But the most likely scenario appears to involve the United States squandering its post-World War II global military and financial dominance.

In “Iran Just Told Us What the War Is Really All About,” we discussed what’s at stake for the United States in the current conflict:

“Outside of quick regime change (meaning the regime fails internally in the next few weeks), the remaining possibilities all offer a dire outcome in terms of the United States maintaining its post-World War II global financial and military dominance.

If the Iranian regime remains in power and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) feel the United States is unable or unwilling to protect them, they’ll look for someone else who can.

China and Russia, with their influence over BRICS participant Iran, will likely be the nations who can. And a precondition for their assistance is likely to be the trade of all energy exports in Chinese yuan.

If so, it’s the end of the petro-dollar.

When coupled with the failure of the U.S. military to protect shipping lanes in both the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, it will also be the end of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency, the end of the U.S. dollar as the most used currency in international trade, and the end of the United States as we’ve known it in our lifetimes.

The post-World War II global financial and military influence of the United States will dwindle to a fraction of what it once was, and the United States will no longer be a major force in international affairs.

Unfortunately, this is the most likely outcome.”

Given the times in which we live, this is exactly what we would expect to see.

When it comes to end times events, the Bible doesn’t mention the United States.

It’s simply not a major player in the end times.

We should expect U.S. power and influence to significantly decline on the world stage in the days to come, and the current conflict with Iran is increasingly looking like it will be one of the reasons why.

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